here is my list of projections for the top 6 bowl games as of today and how we will get there.
Rose Bowl — #1 Oregon (12-1) vs #4 Ohio State (12-1). Both teams win out. Oregon defeats UCLA in the PAC 12 Championship game and Ohio State defeats Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship.
Sugar Bowl — #2 Alabama (12-1) vs #3 Florida State (13-0). Both teams win out. Alabama defeats Missouri in the SEC Championship and Florida State defeats Duke in the ACC championship.
Cotton Bowl — #5 Mississippi State (11-1) vs #8 TCU (10-2). Mississippi State wins a close one in the Egg Bowl and fails to impress the week prior against Vanderbilt. Fall to #5 because they have no conference championship. All hell breaks loose. TCU loses to Texas to throw the Big XII championship to the winner of the Baylor – Kansas State game. Gets the last slot available for a major bowl, ahead of #11 Baylor (10-2).
Fiesta Bowl — #6 Kansas State (10-2) vs #20 Colorado State (12-1). TCU falls to Texas. Kansas State wins out to claim the Big XII. Marshall (12-1) falls to Louisiana Tech (10-3) in the Conference USA Championship game. Utah State (9-3) defeats Boise State (9-3) in the regular season finale to give Colorado State (who wins out) a rematch with Nevada (8-5) in the Mountain West Championship.
Peach — #7 Georgia (10-2) vs #9 UCLA (10-3). Georgia wins out but fails to get to the SEC championship because Missouri defeats both Tennessee and Arkansas. UCLA is the #2 pick out of the PAC 12. They are selected ahead of #10 Arizona State (10-2) because of head-to-head victory.
Orange — #12 Louisville (9-3) vs #8 Michigan State (10-2). The ACC is contracted here. #19 Georgia Tech (9-3) will have just lost to Georgia. #18 Duke (10-3) just lost to Florida State in the ACC Championship. So the committee will select Louisville who will have closed the season with three straight wins (Boston College, Notre Dame, Kentucky) since losing to Florida State. A Big Ten or SEC team should fill the other slot. Candidates will be Michigan St. (10-2), #16 Missouri (10-3), #14 Ole Miss (9-3), #13 Wisconsin (10-3), and #15 Nebraska (10-2). Michigan State is the easy choice here.